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Trends are often difficult to get a handle on, especially those that gauge consumer sentiment. The best you can hope for is a snapshot of a moment in time, and people have a tendency to change their minds without notice.
But I put a lot of stock in survey-driven news that the level of interest among consumers in shopping via cell phone has plummeted.
One survey found that while 76 percent of respondents said they were "very likely" to shop via cell phone in 2000, that number fell to about 50 percent in 2001 and is now well below 25 percent.
If you're banking on m-commerce (remember when you couldn't go an hour without hearing that phrase?), this is disheartening news. But it is not the end of the world for wireless commerce. The future might not be sunshine bright, but there are breaks in the clouds.
Win Some, Lose Some
Indeed, if people were ready to make purchases using wireless phones in 2000, they probably got tired of waiting for retailers to provide something they could buy.
Now the technology exists, but demand has shriveled from neglect. That's an oversimplification, but it's not that far off. So, how can consumer interest be revived?
For a host of psychological and economic reasons, consumer demand for m-commerce probably will never return to 2000 levels. But purveyors of this technology can start by building a logical foundation.
It seems to me that the first generation of m-commerce hoopla was all about providing the ability to buy anything, anywhere, anytime. As it turns out, people do not need to do that, although when they had disposable income to burn, they thought they might like to try.
LIttle by Little
So, now come the baby steps. Mobile e-commerce players must identify what will work and start by spoon-feeding consumers small bites.
Where to begin? Start by asking what people really need to buy on a moment's notice.
EBay's (Nasdaq: EBAY) 
mobile alert service, announced
last week, is an excellent example. Because of its ever-changing nature, the eBay
bidding and buying experience is ideal for wireless alerts.
You get outbid, you get an e-mail. If you're not near a computer and don't have such a service, it might be hours before you know your bid has been trumped.
Constant Change
There, an element of mobile commerce makes sense. Where else? How about in the rising tide of overstock and closeout merchandise retailers?
Presumably, what these e-tailers offer for sale changes constantly, and their ability to offer bargains depends on what is in stock or on what a retailer wants to get rid of fast. I can easily envision bargain-hunting consumers signing up to get first crack at closeout merchandise -- along with a special discount, of course.
Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) , too, has often tossed the
m-commerce beanbag into the air -- and books, music and movies might be a logical choice
for m-commerce.
The idea is that the products offered for sale constantly change. There is something about being the first to own something that makes speed matter. Just check out a record store at midnight when a U2 CD goes on sale.
Keeping It Real
The point is that the mobile element has to be relevant. We're not yet at a point where retailers can alert us via cell phone that sweaters are on sale when we drive by a store. But that's the kind of relevance that is required.
It won't happen overnight. It seemed as though it would at first, but now reality has set in. It's time for m-commerce to get in line with the rest of the recovering tech world and learn to crawl before it starts to run.
What do you think? Let's talk about it.
Note: The opinions expressed by our columnists are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the E-Commerce Times or its management.
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