Is Apple's iPhone Cup Half Empty, Half Full or Running Over?

It's wrong to cast the survey's findings in a negative light, Cliff Kane, the author of the report, told MacNewsWorld, despite his use of the word "only" in announcing the 6 percent figure.

"It can be spun both ways," acknowledged Kane. "It depends on how you look at it. But if they really hit 6 percent in one year, that would seem to be pretty good."

Dreamers Excluded

The research surveyed 1,300 Americans who both own their own cell phones and who make the monthly service payments. This was done to ensure answers came from people who had the means to actually buy an iPhone, not just say they would.

The respondents were first asked whether they'd heard of the iPhone. Then they were asked for their overall impression of the device based on what they'd seen and heard so far. Next, researchers asked how likely they were to purchase one in the next year.

Additionally, the respondents were asked why the were, or weren't, planning on becoming iPhone users. The final question dealt with whether the respondents were current AT&T (NYSE: T) customers "with the hypothesis that those cell phone owners not on AT&T's (former Cingular) network were less likely to purchase the product initially, given the exclusive six-month contract Apple has signed with the carrier," said the report.

Hyped Up

Seventy-seven percent of the respondents said they were familiar with the iPhone. Forty-one percent thought the product was good or very good, while 21 percent said they found it to be fair or poor, Markitecture said. Eighty-three percent of those very familiar with the iPhone "had an excellent or very good impression of the product," the company stated.

Perhaps providing fuel to stories that are taking a negative spin on the report is the section regarding the predicted adoption rate. "Despite the relatively strong impression overall, our estimate of trial or adoption of the iPhone among consumers is 6 percent," it says.

However, the report's next paragraph puts that into context, noting that "while 6 percent may appear low for a high-profile product launch, it actually would be very strong for the cell phone market." Kane went on to write that the Motorola (NYSE: MOT) Razr, which ended up being the biggest-selling phone worldwide after its 2004 launch, only achieved a 6 percent market share at its peak.

Asked how he would spin the story if he were writing about the report's findings, Kane opted for the bright side. "I would say it's good news for Apple," he said. "If 6 percent bought them the next year ... that's millions of units."

Even 3 Percent Would Be Big

This rationale was echoed by JupiterResearch mobile device analyst Neil Strother, who told MacNewsWorld that even if the report's numbers are a few percentage points too high, the iPhone is in good shape.

A 6 percent sales rate could mean about 7.8 million people in America alone would be buying iPhones during the first year, Strother said. "That would put Apple very close to the 10 million it predicted by 2008 worldwide," he noted. "I guess, looking at the face of it, if that survey is valid it has to be pretty good news for Apple. What it says is Apple has obviously done a good job of seeding the market and seeding the expectations."

Most of those who said they weren't interested in an iPhone cited the price, said Kane. "The majority, 75 percent, said it was too expensive," he commented. "Cost is a big issue for a lot of people."